We have just published our tech market forecast for the three largest European economies: France, Germany, and the UK. Due to thecoronavirusand resulting recessions, tech spending in Germany, France, and the UK will decline by 5% to 7% in 2020 from 2019 levels in the best-case scenario. We also think that the UK will be the most vulnerable out of the three countries, with a prospect of a deeper 9% decline in 2020 and continued, but slightly less negative, declining growth in 2021.
While tech spending in France and Germany could get dragged down by economic weakness in the rest of Europe and the US, their tech markets are more likely to experience modest recoveries in 2021. Across all three countries, the impact of the coronavirus on tech spending will vary depending on their approach to managing the pandemic, their economic stabilization programs, and preexisting economic and political conditions.
The UK's tech market will be the weakest in both 2020 and 2021.
France's tech market will be down in 2020, but with potential for a solid recovery in 2021.
Germany's tech market has the best prospect for a relatively small and short drop.
This post was written by VP, Principal Analyst Andrew Bartels, and it originally appearedhere.
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